Title
Hydropower under climate uncertainty: Characterizing the usable capacity of Brazilian, Colombian and Peruvian power plants under climate scenarios
Date Issued
01 April 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Carnegie Mellon University
Publisher(s)
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
Hydropower may be a low-carbon option to increase power generation in developing countries, but these countries are some of the most vulnerable to climate change. Climate change can affect hydropower generation through changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation, rising temperatures, and glacier mass changes. Evaluating climate impacts on hydropower generally requires detailed local input data and hydrological models, which may not be available in many developing nations. Nevertheless, the need to understand the impacts is essential for the developing world. Here we present a modeling framework that relies on remotely sensed and global gridded datasets forced by an ensemble of 21 general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to evaluate climate-induced impacts on hydropower through the 21st century. We include 134 hydropower plants (>100 MW), representing 42% of hydropower installed capacity in South America, across five regions of Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Our results suggest the median monthly usable capacity would increase for Colombia (+2.6% to +8.4% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively) and Peru (+6.7% to +9.3% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively) by 2100 relative to the late 20th century. For Brazil, we observe a mix of reductions and increases in usable capacity. While our results suggest potential reductions for the dry season usable capacity in the Parana, Paraguay, and Southeast Atlantic regions of Brazil, we also observe slight increases in usable capacity during the rainy months for all its regions. These results can help inform future planning decisions and potential interconnections between the three countries. Additionally, the proposed framework can contribute to an increased capability to evaluate climate-induced risks to power systems in developing countries, where data and computation resources can be limited.
Start page
217
End page
229
Volume
61
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería del Petróleo, (combustibles, aceites), Energía, Combustibles
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85102401483
Source
Energy for Sustainable Development
ISSN of the container
09730826
Sponsor(s)
This study was partially supported by a seed grant from Carnegie Mellon University's Scott Institute for Energy and Innovation, a fellowship from Carnegie Mellon University's Steinbrenner Institute for Environmental Education and Research, and Carnegie Mellon University's Department of Engineering and Public Policy. Partial support came from the Rockefeller Foundation through a sub-contract with the University of Massachusetts at Amherst (sub-award #19-10766 A 00). The authors thank Roberto Tamayo from the Economic Operator of the Peruvian National Interconnected System (COES) for supplying power plant characteristics and generation data for Peru. We thank Oriana Chegwidden from the University of Washington, who provided guidance and revision of the ANOVA and the Internal Variability Assessment. We thank Professor David Rounce from Carnegie Mellon University, who provided comments on the manuscript. Finally, we thank Professor Xu Liang from the University of Pittsburgh, who provided feedback during the development of the model. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and may not represent the views of the sponsors.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus