Title
Multi-agent simulation of urban social dynamics for spatial load forecasting
Date Issued
17 April 2012
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Universidad Estadual Paulista
Abstract
A multi-agent system for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulating the different social dynamics involved in distribution systems, is presented. This approach improves the spatial forecasting techniques that usually consider the service zone as a static entity to model or simulate the spatial electric load forecasting in a city. This paper aims to determine how the electric load will be distributed among the sub-zones in the city. For this, the service zone is divided into several subzones, each subzone considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented through development probabilities. These probabilities are considered as input data for the simulation. Given this setting, different kinds of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems in parallel. The approach is tested with data from a real distribution system in a mid-size city; the results show a low spatial error when compared to real data. Less than 6% of the load growth was identified 0.71 km outside of its correct location on the test system. © 1969-2012 IEEE.
Start page
1870
End page
1878
Volume
27
Issue
4
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería aeroespacial
Estudios urbanos
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84867988589
Source
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN of the container
08858950
Sponsor(s)
Manuscript received June 08, 2011; revised October 11, 2011 and December 27, 2011; accepted February 17, 2012. Date of publication April 10, 2012; date of current version October 17, 2012. This work was supported by FEPISA, CAPES and CNPq (proc:303741/2009-0). Paper no. TPWRS-00549-2011.
Sources of information:
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Scopus