Title
Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption
Date Issued
10 October 2014
Resource Type
Journal
Author(s)
Lee R.
Mason A.
Amporfu E.
An C.B.
Bixby L.R.
Bravo J.
Bucheli M.
Chen Q.
Comelatto P.
Coy D.
D'Albis H.
Donehower G.
Dramani L.
Fürnkranz-Prskawetz A.
Gal R.I.
Holz M.
Huong N.T.L.
Kluge F.
Ladusingh L.
Lee S.H.
Lindh T.
Ling L.
Long G.T.
Maliki
Matsukura R.
McCarthy D.
Mejía-Guevara I.
Mergo T.
Miller T.
Mwabu G.
Narayana M.R.
Nor V.
Norte G.M.
Ogawa N.
Olaniyan O.A.
Oosthuizen M.
Phananiramai M.
Queiroz B.L.
Racelis R.H.
Rentería E.
Rice J.M.
Sambt J.
Seçkin A.
Sefton J.
Soyibo A.
Tovar J.A.
Tung A.C.
Turra C.M.
Urdinola B.P.
Vaittinen R.
Vanne R.
Zannella M.
Zhang Q.
Abstract
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
Start page
229
End page
234
Volume
346
Issue
6206
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84907814963
PubMed ID
Source
Science
Resource of which it is part
Science
ISSN of the container
00368075
Source funding
National Institute on Aging
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus