Title
Simulation of the energy efficiency auction prices via the markov chain monte carlo method
Date Issued
01 September 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Souza R.C.
Da Silva F.L.C.
Carbo-Bustinza N.
Ibacache-Pulgar G.
Calili R.F.
Publisher(s)
MDPI AG
Abstract
Over the years, electricity consumption behavior in Brazil has been analyzed due to financial and social problems. In this context, it is important to simulate energy prices of the energy efficiency auctions in the Brazilian electricitymarket. TheMarkov ChainMonte Carlo (MCMC)method generated simulations; thus, several samples were generated with different sizes. It is possible to say that the larger the sample, the better the approximation to the original data. Then, the Kernel method and the Gaussian mixture model used to estimate the density distribution of energy price, and the MCMC method were crucial in providing approximations of the original data and clearly analyzing its impact. Next, the behavior of the data in each histogram was observed with 500, 1000, 5000 and 10,000 samples, considering only one scenario. The samplewhich best approximates the original data in accordancewith the generated histograms is the 10,000th sample, which consistently follows the behavior of the data. Therefore, this paper presents an approach to generate samples of auction energy prices in the energy efficiency market, using theMCMC method through theMetropolis-Hastings algorithm. The results show that this approach can be used to generate energy price samples.
Volume
13
Issue
17
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía
Econometría
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85090706761
Source
Energies
ISSN of the container
19961073
Sponsor(s)
Acknowledgments: The authors would like to thank the Universidad Peruana Unión (UPeU) and the PósMQI/PUC-RIO for the financial support.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus