Title
Exploring machine learning techniques to predict deforestation to enhance the decision-making of road construction projects
Date Issued
01 February 2022
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
John Wiley and Sons Inc
Abstract
Land use changes (LUCs), which are defined as the modification in the use of land due to anthropogenic activities, are important sources of GHG emissions. In this context, understanding future trends of LUCs, such as deforestation, in a spatial manner is relevant. The main objective of this study is to generate a deforestation prediction model for a given period of time (i.e., 2002–2017 and 2010–2017) to estimate the potential carbon emissions associated with different anthropogenic variables in the Peruvian Amazon using machine learning (ML) algorithms. This study was motivated in the analysis of a road project previously studied using life cycle assessment (LCA). Models using neural networks and random forest algorithms were trained and evaluated in a fully cloud-based environment using Google Earth Engine. ML-related results demonstrated that random forest is a quicker and straightforward response to model the system under study, especially considering that data do not require additional processing during the modeling and prediction stages. Predicted results suggest that expected road expansion may be related to considerable carbon emissions in the future. Calculated values are relevant especially if the mitigation efforts that Peru has complied with in the Paris Agreement are considered. The increased complexity of the framework is justified since it allows identifying the location of hotspots and may potentially complement the utility of LCA in policy support in the areas of territorial planning and tropical road expansion.
Start page
225
End page
239
Volume
26
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias del medio ambiente
Ingeniería de la construcción
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85113288827
Source
Journal of Industrial Ecology
ISSN of the container
10881980
Source funding
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Tecnológica
Sponsor(s)
Gustavo Larrea-Gallegos wishes to thank the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Tecnológica (CONCYTEC) for his Master's program scholarship in the period 2017–2019 at the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP). Dr. Ramzy Kahhat, Dr. Geoffrey Gallice, and Dr. César Beltrán are all thanked for valuable scientific exchange.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus