Title
Properties of predictors in overdifferenced nearly nonstationary autoregression
Date Issued
01 January 2001
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Abstract
We analyze the effect of overdifferencing a stationary AR(p + 1) process whose largest root is near unity. It is found that, if the process is nearly nonstationary, the estimators of the overdifferenced model ARIMA(p, 1, 0) are root-T consistent. It is also found that this misspecified ARIMA(p, 1, 0) has lower predictive mean squared error, to terms of small order, than the properly specified AR(p + 1) model due to its parsimony. The advantage of the overdifferenced predictor depends on the remaining roots, the prediction horizon and the mean of the process.
Start page
45
End page
66
Volume
22
Issue
1
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-17144453839
Source
Journal of Time Series Analysis
ISSN of the container
01439782
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus