Title
Climate change may impair electricity generation and economic viability of future Amazon hydropower
Date Issued
01 November 2021
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Almeida R.M.
Fleischmann A.S.
Brêda J.P.F.
Cardoso D.S.
Angarita H.
Collischonn W.
Forsberg B.
Hamilton S.K.
Hannam P.M.
Paiva R.
Poff N.L.R.
Sethi S.A.
Shi Q.
Gomes C.P.
Flecker A.S.
Cornell University
Publisher(s)
Elsevier Ltd
Abstract
Numerous hydropower facilities are under construction or planned in tropical and subtropical rivers worldwide. While dams are typically designed considering historic river discharge regimes, climate change is likely to induce large-scale alterations in river hydrology. Here we analyze how future climate change will affect river hydrology, electricity generation, and economic viability of > 350 potential hydropower dams across the Amazon, Earth's largest river basin and a global hotspot for future hydropower development. Midcentury projections for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios show basin-wide reductions of river discharge (means, 13 and 16%, respectively) and hydropower generation (19 and 27%). Declines are sharper for dams in Brazil, which harbors 60% of the proposed projects. Climate change will cause more frequent low-discharge interruption of hydropower generation and less frequent full-capacity operation. Consequently, the minimum electricity sale price for projects to break even more than doubles at many proposed dams, rendering much of future Amazon hydropower less competitive than increasingly lower cost renewable sources such as wind and solar. Climate-smart power systems will be fundamental to support environmentally and financially sustainable energy development in hydropower-dependent regions.
Volume
71
Number
102383
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Oceanografía, Hidrología, Recursos hídricos Investigación climática
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85116088448
Source
Global Environmental Change
ISSN of the container
09593780
Sponsor(s)
This work was supported by Cornell University's Atkinson Center for Sustainability through a Postdoctoral Fellowship to R.M.A. and the Atkinson Academic Venture Fund. We thank all participants of the Amazon Dams Computational Sustainability Working group and appreciate helpful comments from the Cornell Limnology Group.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus