Title
An empirical note about estimation and forecasting Latin American Forex returns volatility: the role of long memory and random level shifts components
Date Issued
01 June 2019
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Springer Verlag
Abstract
A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of Rodríguez (N Am J Econ Financ 42:393–420, 2017) but using more countries and working with squared returns in the forecasting exercise. The estimation results show: (i) existence of RLS; (ii) measurement errors except in Chile and Colombia. Regarding the fractional parameter, the estimates are quite small indicating the possible absence of long memory with possible exceptions of Chile and Colombia. The forecast exercise using the 10% MCS of Hansen et al. (Econometrica 79:453–497, 2011) and the ratios of MSFE indicate absence of the RLS-ARFIMA models while RLS-ARMA models are selected. In general, the results of the estimations and forecasts indicate probable absence of long memory or its small magnitude, which would makes this characteristic not only unnecessary but also irrelevant to capture the variations of the low frequencies of the series.
Start page
107
End page
123
Volume
18
Issue
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Econometría Economía
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85062604890
Source
Portuguese Economic Journal
ISSN of the container
1617982X
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus