Title
Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics
Date Issued
18 November 2008
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
De Magny G.C.
Murtugudde R.
Sapiano M.R.P.
Nizam A.
Brown C.W.
Busalacchi A.J.
Yunus M.
Nair G.B.
Calkins J.
Manna B.
Rajendran K.
Bhattacharya M.K.
Huq A.
Sack R.B.
Colwell R.R.
Abstract
The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, has been shown to be autochthonous to riverine, estuarine, and coastal waters along with its host, the copepod, a significant member of the zooplankton community. Temperature, salinity, rainfall and plankton have proven to be important factors in the ecology of V. cholerae, influencing the transmission of the disease in those regions of the world where the human population relies on untreated water as a source of drinking water. In this study, the pattern of cholera outbreaks during 1998-2006 in Kolkata, India, and Matlab, Bangladesh, and the earth observation data were analyzed with the objective of developing a prediction model for cholera. Satellite sensors were used to measure chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, rainfall data were obtained from both satellite and in situ gauge measurements. From the analyses, a statistically significant relationship between the time series for cholera in Kolkata, India, and CHL and rainfall anomalies was determined. A statistically significant one month lag was observed between CHL anomaly and number of cholera cases in Matlab, Bangladesh. From the results of the study, it is concluded that ocean and climate patterns are useful predictors of cholera epidemics, with the dynamics of endemic cholera being related to climate and/or changes in the aquatic ecosystem. When the ecology of V. cholerae is considered in predictive models, a robust early warning system for cholera in endemic regions of the world can be developed for public health planning and decision making. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
Start page
17676
End page
17681
Volume
105
Issue
46
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Biología celular, Microbiología
Epidemiología
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-56649103838
PubMed ID
Source
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN of the container
10916490
Sponsor(s)
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI039129
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus