Title
How well can we simulate complex hydro-geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi-lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)
Date Issued
15 June 2018
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Mergili M.
Emmer A.
Juřicová A.
Fischer J.T.
Huggel C.
Pudasaini S.P.
Publisher(s)
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Wiley-Blackwell
Abstract
Changing high-mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini () general two-phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back-calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi-lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision-making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Start page
1373
End page
1389
Volume
43
Issue
7
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería ambiental y geológica Oceanografía, Hidrología, Recursos hídricos
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85040690668
Source
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
ISSN of the container
0197-9337
Sponsor(s)
The work was conducted as part of the international cooperation project ‘A GIS simulation model for avalanche and debris flows (avaflow)’ supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG, project number PU 386/3-1) and the Austrian Science Fund (FWF, project number I 1600-N30). The field work was supported by GAUK Project No. 70413 and GAUK Project No. 730216 awarded to Adam Emmer and by the Charles University Mobility Fund awarded to Anna Juřicová. This work follows the AKTION Austria – Czech Republic project ‘Currently forming glacial lakes: potentially hazardous entities in deglaciating high mountains’ of Adam Emmer and Martin Mergili. Further, the support provided by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the framework of the National Sustainability Programme I (NPU I), Grant No. LO1415, and by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) through Proyecto Glaciares+, is acknowledged. TanDEM-X data courtesy of INSA3397, © DLR, production Gamma Remote Sensing in the framework of the European Space Agency S:GLA:MO project. We are grateful to Vít Vilímek and Jan Klimeš for fruitful discussions and to Matthias Benedikt for comprehensive technical support. The computational results presented have been achieved in part using the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC).
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus