Title
The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation – A global multi-city analysis
Date Issued
01 January 2023
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Nottmeyer L.
Armstrong B.
Lowe R.
Abbott S.
Meakin S.
O'Reilly K.M.
von Borries R.
Schneider R.
Royé D.
Hashizume M.
Pascal M.
Tobias A.
Vicedo-Cabrera A.M.
Lavigne E.
Correa P.M.
Ortega N.V.
Kynčl J.
Urban A.
Orru H.
Ryti N.
Jaakkola J.
Dallavalle M.
Schneider A.
Honda Y.
Ng C.F.S.
Alahmad B.
Holobâc I.H.
Kim H.
Lee W.
Íñiguez C.
Bell M.L.
Zanobetti A.
Schwartz J.
Scovronick N.
Coélho M.d.S.Z.S.
Saldiva P.H.N.
Diaz M.H.
Gasparrini A.
Sera F.
Publisher(s)
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
Background and aim: The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally. Methods: We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone. Results: We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m3 compared to 11.0 g/m3) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries. Conclusion: Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.
Volume
854
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Enfermedades infecciosas Meteorología y ciencias atmosféricas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85138454109
PubMed ID
Source
Science of the Total Environment
ISSN of the container
00489697
Sponsor(s)
S.A. and S.M. were funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant 210758/Z/18/Z210758/Z/18/Z ). R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship.S.A. and S.M. were funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant 210758/Z/18/Z210758/Z/18/Z).D.R. was supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Xunta de Galicia (Spain).A.T. supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S).A.G. was funded by the Medical Research Council-UK (Grant IDs: MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655).J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project 22-24920S.H.K. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (BK21 Center for Integrative Response to Health Disasters, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University).A.S., was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655).N.S., was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). N.S., was supported by the NIEHS -funded HERCULES Center ( P30ES019776 ). J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation , project 22-24920S . A.T. supported by MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033 (grant CEX2018-000794-S ). D.R. was supported by a postdoctoral research fellowship of the Xunta de Galicia (Spain). R.L. was supported by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship . A.G. was funded by the Medical Research Council-UK (Grant IDs: MR/R013349/1 and MR/V034162/1 ), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1 ) and the European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 ). H.K. was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (BK21 Center for Integrative Response to Health Disasters, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University).
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