Title
On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean
Date Issued
01 April 2021
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Plecha S.M.
Soares P.M.M.
Silva-Fernandes S.M.
University of Alcalá
Publisher(s)
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Abstract
Marine Heatwave (MHW) events have been increasing all around the world, causing severe impacts on marine ecosystems and on the economy of the aquaculture, fishing and tourism industries. In this study, the occurrence and characteristics of MHW events in the North Atlantic are analyzed for a recent period (1971–2000) and the two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100). The analysis is based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data obtained from observations and from Global Climate Models (GCM) in the CMIP5 archieve. The results show that the GCMs present significant shortcomings in reproducing the SST and MHWs. The model results regarding the recent trends in MHW are in agreement with the ones observed, although they underestimate the values of MHW intensity and overestimate the values of both frequency and duration of events. The MHWs observed occur at a mean frequency of 1.90 events per year and are characterized by ~ 13 days of mean duration and 0.37 ºC of mean intensity, while the multi-model ensemble mean characterizes the events with 12 additional days and 0.15 ºC less intensity. Under climate change scenarios, when considering a stationary threshold, the models project noticeable increases in MHW event intensity that could reach 2 ºC above the 90th percentile and a quasi-permanent state of MHW by the end of the century. When a non-stationary threshold is considered, the characteristics of the events are similar to those obtained during the historical period. The GCMs significant biases in simulating the SST and leading to extremes like MHWs highlight the importance of improving GCM performance.
Start page
2027
End page
2056
Volume
56
Issue
August 7
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Investigación climática
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85101773189
Source
Climate Dynamics
Resource of which it is part
Climate Dynamics
ISSN of the container
09307575
Source funding
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Sponsor(s)
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL, funded by FCT and also the Project ROADMAP (JPIOCEANS/0001/2019). The authors would like to acknowledge the NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ . The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support of FCT through project UIDB/50019/2020 – IDL, funded by FCT and also the Project ROADMAP (JPIOCEANS/0001/2019). The authors would like to acknowledge the NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus