Title
Air quality assessment and pollution forecasting using artificial neural networks in Metropolitan Lima-Peru
Date Issued
01 December 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Cordova C.H.
Portocarrero M.N.L.
Salas R.
Torres R.
Rodrigues P.C.
Publisher(s)
Nature Research
Abstract
The prediction of air pollution is of great importance in highly populated areas because it directly impacts both the management of the city’s economic activity and the health of its inhabitants. This work evaluates and predicts the Spatio-temporal behavior of air quality in Metropolitan Lima, Peru, using artificial neural networks. The conventional feedforward backpropagation known as Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and the Recurrent Artificial Neural network known as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM) were implemented for the hourly prediction of PM 10 based on the past values of this pollutant and three meteorological variables obtained from five monitoring stations. The models were validated using two schemes: The Hold-Out and the Blocked-Nested Cross-Validation (BNCV). The simulation results show that periods of moderate PM 10 concentration are predicted with high precision. Whereas, for periods of high contamination, the performance of both models, the MLP and LSTM, were diminished. On the other hand, the prediction performance improved slightly when the models were trained and validated with the BNCV scheme. The simulation results showed that the models obtained a good performance for the CDM, CRB, and SMP monitoring stations, characterized by a moderate to low level of contamination. However, the results show the difficulty of predicting this contaminant in those stations that present critical contamination episodes, such as ATE and HCH. In conclusion, the LSTM recurrent artificial neural networks with BNCV adapt more precisely to critical pollution episodes and have better predictability performance for this type of environmental data.
Volume
11
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Salud pública, Salud ambiental Ingeniería ambiental Ciencias del medio ambiente
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85121517498
PubMed ID
Source
Scientific Reports
Resource of which it is part
Scientific Reports
ISSN of the container
20452322
Sponsor(s)
ANID Consejo Nacional Brasileño de Ciencias Científicas y Tecnológicas Consejo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus