Title
Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America: trends and predictions to 2030
Date Issued
01 December 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Valcarcel B.
Guerra-Canchari P.
Santos C.A.D.
Barbosa I.R.
La Vecchia C.
McGlynn K.A.
de Souza D.L.B.
Publisher(s)
BioMed Central Ltd
Abstract
Background: Reports suggest that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries have not reduced leukemia mortality compared to high-income countries. However, updated trends remain largely unknown in the region. Given that leukemia is the leading cause of cancer-related death in LAC children, we evaluated mortality trends in children (0-14y) from 15 LAC countries for the period 2000–2017 and predicted mortality to 2030. Methods: We retrieved cancer mortality data using the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Mortality rates (standardized to the world standard SEGI population) were analyzed for 15 LAC countries. We evaluated the average mortality rates for the last 5 years (2013–2017). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to evaluate leukemia mortality trends and provide an estimated annual percent change (EAPC). Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions until 2030. Results: Between 2013 and 2017, the highest mortality rates were reported in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru. Upward mortality trends were reported in Nicaragua (EAPC by 2.9% in boys, and EAPC by 2.0% in girls), and Peru (EAPC by 1.4% in both sexes). Puerto Rico experienced large declines in mortality among both boys (EAPC by − 9.7%), and girls (EAPC by − 6.0%). Leukemia mortality will increase in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay by 2030. Conclusion: Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in some LAC countries by 2030. Interventions to prevent this outcome should be tailor to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities and ensure universal healthcare coverage.
Volume
20
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Oncología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85095611457
PubMed ID
Source
BMC Pediatrics
ISSN of the container
14712431
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus