This paper is about the development of a forecasting model that has been used in the Mexican Institute for Adult Education. This institute is in charge of an adult education program that is based on 42 modules, each of which requires books and materials each year. Accurate forecasts are needed to reduce the costs of wastage and shortages. Using data from previous years, the structure of the program, and interviews with officials in the Institute, we have developed a forecasting model based on Bayesian estimation. We further developed an approach that combines simulation with forecasting techniques, which may be appropriate when using a complex forecasting model. The initial results are encouraging, and we believe that the approach can be used in other situations, especially those concerned with service encounters. Our model also helps officials to understand several aspects of the education program. © 2009 International Federation of Operational Research Societies.