Title
Link between unemployment and crime in the US: A Markov-Switching approach
Date Issued
01 May 2014
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Abstract
This study has two goals. The first is to use Markov Switching models to identify and analyze the cycles in the unemployment rate and four different types of property-related criminal activities in the US. The second is to apply the nonparametric concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006) to determine the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and property crimes. Findings show that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between the unemployment rate, burglary, larceny, and robbery. However, the unemployment rate has a significant and negative (i.e., a counter-cyclical) relationship with motor-vehicle theft. Therefore, more motor-vehicle thefts occur during economic expansions relative to contractions. Next, we divide the sample into three different subsamples to examine the consistency of the findings. The results show that the co-movements between the unemployment rate and property crimes during recession periods are much weaker, when compared with that of the normal periods of the US economy. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Start page
33
End page
45
Volume
45
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Temas sociales
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Economía
Sociología
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84892841702
PubMed ID
Source
Social Science Research
ISSN of the container
0049089X
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus