Title
Investigating spillover of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from a prison: A spatial and molecular epidemiological analysis
Date Issued
03 August 2018
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Warren J.L.
Grandjean L.
Lithgow A.
Zelner J.L.
Andrews J.R.
Cohen T.
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Publisher(s)
BioMed Central Ltd.
Abstract
Background: Congregate settings may serve as institutional amplifiers of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). We analyze spatial, epidemiological, and pathogen genetic data prospectively collected from neighborhoods surrounding a prison in Lima, Peru, where inmates experience a high risk of MDR-TB, to investigate the risk of spillover into the surrounding community. Methods: Using hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling, we address three questions regarding the MDR-TB risk: (i) Does the excess risk observed among prisoners also extend outside the prison? (ii) If so, what is the magnitude, shape, and spatial range of this spillover effect? (iii) Is there evidence of additional transmission across the region? Results: The region of spillover risk extends for 5.47km outside of the prison (95% credible interval: 1.38, 9.63km). Within this spillover region, we find that nine of the 467 non-inmate patients (35 with MDR-TB) have MDR-TB strains that are genetic matches to strains collected from current inmates with MDR-TB, compared to seven out of 1080 patients (89 with MDR-TB) outside the spillover region (p values: 0.022 and 0.008). We also identify eight spatially aggregated genetic clusters of MDR-TB, four within the spillover region, consistent with local transmission among individuals living close to the prison. Conclusions: We demonstrate a clear prison spillover effect in this population, which suggests that interventions in the prison may have benefits that extend to the surrounding community.
Volume
16
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Enfermedades infecciosas
Epidemiología
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85051003572
PubMed ID
Source
BMC Medicine
Sponsor(s)
This work was supported by Clinical and Translational Science Awards (UL1 TR001863 and KL2 TR001862) from the National Center for Advancing Translational Science, the National Institutes of Health (grants R01 AI112438, R01 AI130058, and U54 GM088558), the National Institute for Health Research, the Academy of Medical Sciences, and the Wellcome Trust (grant 201470/Z/16/Z).
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus