Title
A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Date Issued
01 January 2012
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Lim S.S.
Vos T.
Flaxman A.D.
Danaei G.
Shibuya K.
Adair-Rohani H.
Amann M.
Anderson H.R.
Andrews K.G.
Aryee M.
Atkinson C.
Bacchus L.J.
Bahalim A.N.
Balakrishnan K.
Balmes J.
Barker-Collo S.
Baxter A.
Bell M.L.
Blore J.D.
Blyth F.
Bonner C.
Borges G.
Bourne R.
Boussinesq M.
Brauer M.
Brooks P.
Bruce N.G.
Brunekreef B.
Bryan-Hancock C.
Bucello C.
Buchbinder R.
Bull F.
Burnett R.T.
Byers T.E.
Calabria B.
Carapetis J.
Carnahan E.
Chafe Z.
Charlson F.
Chen H.
Chen J.S.
Cheng A.T.A.
Child J.C.
Cohen A.
Colson K.E.
Cowie B.C.
Darby S.
Darling S.
Davis A.
Degenhardt L.
Dentener F.
Des Jarlais D.C.
Devries K.
Dherani M.
Ding E.L.
Dorsey E.R.
Driscoll T.
Edmond K.
Ali S.E.
Engell R.E.
Erwin P.J.
Fahimi S.
Falder G.
Farzadfar F.
Ferrari A.
Finucane M.M.
Flaxman S.
Fowkes F.G.R.
Freedman G.
Freeman M.K.
Gakidou E.
Ghosh S.
Giovannucci E.
Gmel G.
Graham K.
Grainger R.
Grant B.
Gunnell D.
Gutierrez H.R.
Hall W.
Hoek H.W.
Hogan A.
Hosgood H.D.
Hoy D.
Hu H.
Hubbell B.J.
Hutchings S.J.
Ibeanusi S.E.
Jacklyn G.L.
Jasrasaria R.
Jonas J.B.
Kan H.
Kanis J.A.
Kassebaum N.
Kawakami N.
Khang Y.H.
Khatibzadeh S.
Khoo J.P.
Kok C.
Laden F.
Publisher(s)
Elsevier
Abstract
Background Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years; DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. Findings In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7 0% [95% uncertainty interval 6 2-7 7] of global DALYs); tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6 3% [5 5-7 0]), and alcohol use (5 5% [5 0-5 9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7 9% [6 8-9 4]), household air pollution from solid fuels; (HAP; 7 0% [5 6-8 3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6 1% [5 4-6 8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10 0% (95% UI 9 2-10 8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water ' and sanitation accounting for 0 9% (0 4-1 6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. Interpretation Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.
Start page
2224
End page
2260
Volume
380
Issue
9859
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Patología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84871055775
PubMed ID
Source
The Lancet
ISSN of the container
01406736
Sponsor(s)
A Davis is employed by the NHS on works for the UK Dept of Health as lead adviser on audiology. E R Dorsey has been a consultant for Medtronic and Lundbeck and has received grant support from Lundbeck and Prana Biotechnology. M Ezzati chaired a session and gave a talk at the World Cardiology Congress (WCC), with travel cost reimbursed by the World Heart Federation. At the WCC, he also gave a talk at a session organised by Pepsico with no financial remuneration. G A Mensah is a former employee of PepsiCo. D Mozaffarian has received: ad hoc travel reimbursement and/or honoraria for one-time specific presentations on diet and cardiometabolic diseases from Nutrition Impact (9/10), the International Life Sciences Institute (12/10), Bunge (11/11), Pollock Institute (3/12), and Quaker Oats (4/12; modest); and Unilever's North America Scientific Advisory Board (modest). B Neal is the Chair of the Australian Division of World Action on Salt and Health. He has consulted to Roche and Takeda. He has received lecture fees, travel fees, or reimbursements from Abbott, Amgen, AstraZeneca, George Clinical, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Pharmacy Guild of Australia, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, Seervier, and Tanabe. He holds research support from the Australian Food and Grocery Council, Bupa Australia, Johnson and Johnson, Merck Schering-Plough, Roche, Servier, and United Healthcare Group. He is not employed by a commercial entity and has no equity ownership or stock options, patents or royalties, or any other financial or non-financial support that might be viewed as a conflict of interest. L Rushton received honorarium for board membership of the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals and research grants to Imperial College London (as PI) from the European Chemical Industry Council and CONCAWE.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus