Title
Using foresight to gain a local perspective on the future of ecosystem services in a mountain protected area in Peru
Date Issued
01 August 2018
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
International Mountain Society
Abstract
Ecosystem services in the mountainous Salinas and Aguada Blanca National Reserve in Peru are under pressure, and perspectives on possible solutions depend on the different stakeholders' understanding of these services and their interests in them. We describe the application of the foresight approach to integrate various stakeholders' perspectives on the future of ecosystem services in the reserve. Ultimately, the purpose of this approach is to achieve an inclusive and viable plan for conservation and management of existing resources. The participatory analysis provided local people's perceptions of bofedal (wetland) and tolar (shrubland) ecosystem services, as well as their assessment of likely scenarios for the future. We identified 2 important factors in the hypotheses the local people provided: extreme events such as water scarcity and drought, and participation of the private sector in water distribution. Participants estimated that water storage and fuel for cooking were likely to have the strongest effects on current and future ecosystem services. Based on this, we jointly developed hypotheses using a stepwise approach and used software to calculate probabilities in a systematic way and produce a series of scenarios. The likelihood of these scenarios was also assessed by groups of stakeholders, yielding 5 scenarios for consideration in designing management plans. Future scenarios are highly dependent on proper management of the bofedal. We conclude that foresight helps to involve local people better in the process of developing viable strategies for the future of the reserve and for the conservation of the natural resources that it harbors.
Start page
192
End page
202
Volume
38
Issue
3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias del medio ambiente
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85054696588
Source
Mountain Research and Development
ISSN of the container
02764741
Sponsor(s)
We appreciate the collaboration of all members of the Chalhuanca community who participated in the project. Thanks go to Jhon Machaca, Kenny Caballero, Percy Tarqui, and Henry Vera of the Centre for the Study and Promotion of Development; Alexander Calachahua and Rodi Teran of the Technological Institute of Yanque, Arequipa; and the National Service of Protected Natural Areas of Arequipa for support of the fieldwork. We also thank Salvador
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus