Title
Bayesian Estimation of a Skew-Student-t Stochastic Volatility Model
Date Issued
10 September 2015
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Publisher(s)
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Abstract
In this paper we present a stochastic volatility (SV) model assuming that the return shock has a skew-Student-t distribution. This allows a parsimonious, flexible treatment of skewness and heavy tails in the conditional distribution of returns. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed and used for parameter estimation and forecasting. The MCMC method exploits a skew-normal mixture representation of the error distribution with a gamma distribution as the mixing distribution. The developed methodology is applied to the NASDAQ daily index returns. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of-sample forecasting in a value-at-risk (VaR) study reveal that the SV model based on skew-Student-t distribution provides significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the NASDAQ index data over the usual normal model.
Start page
721
End page
738
Volume
17
Issue
3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84938960047
Source
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability
ISSN of the container
13875841
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus