Title
Clinical prediction rule for stratifying risk of pulmonary multidrug-resistant tuberculosis
Date Issued
19 October 2010
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Heudebert G.
Henostroza G.
Rodriguez M.
Centor R.
Estrada C.
Publisher(s)
Public Library of Science
Abstract
Background: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampin, is a worldwide problem. Objective: To develop a clinical prediction rule to stratify risk for MDR-TB among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods: Derivation and internal validation of the rule among adult patients prospectively recruited from 37 health centers (Perú), either a) presenting with a positive acid-fast bacillus smear, or b) had failed therapy or had a relapse within the first 12 months. Results: Among 964 patients, 82 had MDR-TB (prevalence, 8.5%). Variables included were MDR-TB contact within the family, previous tuberculosis, cavitary radiologic pattern, and abnormal lung exam. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) was 0.76. Selecting a cut-off score of one or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 72.6%, specificity of 62.8%, likelihood ratio (LR) positive of 1.95, and LR negative of 0.44. Similarly, selecting a cut-off score of two or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 60.8%, specificity of 87.5%, LR positive of 4.85, and LR negative of 0.45. Finally, selecting a cut-off score of three or greater resulted in a sensitivity of 45.1%, specificity of 95.3%, LR positive of 9.56, and LR negative of 0.58. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction rule at presentation can stratify risk for MDR-TB. If further validated, the rule could be used for management decisions in resource-limited areas.
Volume
5
Issue
8
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Enfermedades infecciosas
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-77957887645
PubMed ID
Source
PLoS ONE
ISSN of the container
19326203
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus