Title
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
Date Issued
05 December 2015
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Forouzanfar M.H.
Alexander L.
Bachman V.F.
Biryukov S.
Brauer M.
Casey D.
Coates M.M.
Delwiche K.
Estep K.
Frostad J.J.
Astha K.C.
Kyu H.H.
Moradi-Lakeh M.
Ng M.
Slepak E.
Thomas B.A.
Wagner J.
Achoki T.
Atkinson C.
Barber R.M.
Cooperrider K.
Dandona L.
Dicker D.
Flaxman A.D.
Fleming T.D.
Foreman K.J.
Gakidou E.
Hay S.I.
Heuton K.R.
Iannarone M.L.
Ku T.
Larson H.J.
Lim S.S.
Lopez A.D.
Lozano R.
MacIntyre M.F.
Margono C.
McLain A.
Mokdad A.H.
Mullany E.C.
Murray C.J.L.
Naghavi M.
Nguyen G.
Pain A.W.
Richardson L.
Robinson M.
Sandar L.
Stephens N.
Temesgen A.M.
Thomson B.
Vos T.
Wan X.
Wang H.
Wurtz B.
Ebel B.E.
Ellenbogen R.G.
Wright J.L.
Alfonso-Cristancho R.
Anderson B.O.
Jensen P.N.
Quistberg D.A.
Riederer A.
Vavilala M.S.
Zunt J.R.
Anderson H.R.
Pourmalek F.
Gotay C.C.
Burnett R.
Shin H.H.
Weichenthal S.
Cohen A.
Knudsen A.
Aasvang G.
Kinge J.M.
Skirbekk V.
Vollset S.
Abbafati C.
Abbasoglu Ozgoren A.
Çavlin A.
Kucuk Bicer B.
Abd-Allah F.
Abera S.F.
Melaku Y.A.
Aboyans V.
Abraham B.
Puthenpurakal Abraham J.
Abraham J.P.
Thorne-Lyman A.L.
Ding E.L.
Fahimi S.
Khatibzadeh S.
Wagner G.R.
Bukhman G.
Campos-Nonato I.R.
Feigl A.B.
Salomon J.A.
Benzian H.
Abubakar I.
Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E.
Aburto T.C.
Mendoza, Walter
Publisher(s)
Lancet Publishing Group
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.
Start page
2287
End page
2323
Volume
386
Issue
10010
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad Epidemiología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85049491557
PubMed ID
Source
The Lancet
ISSN of the container
01406736
Sponsor(s)
BDG works for AMP, which receives grant-specific support from Crucell, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur; however, none of this support is for work related to the present report. MGS received a speaking honorarium from Ethicon for work unrelated to this manuscript. MBS is a paid consultant to Janssen, Pfizer, and Tonix Pharmaceuticals and is also paid for his editorial work on Up-to-Date and on the journal Biological Psychiatry. PJ is supported by a career development fellowship from the Wellcome Trust, Public Health Foundation of India and a Consortium of UK Universities. SIH is funded by a Wellcome Trust Grant. JAS has received grant support from Takeda and Savient Pharmaceuticals and consultant fees from Takeda, Regeneron, Allergan, and Savient. JAS is an executive member of OMERACT, an organisation that received arms-length funding from 36 pharmaceutical companies. KJL was funded by WHO to conduct the review of HSV-2 seroprevalence which informs this study. During the study, KJL received funding from Health Protection Scotland, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions, and Sexual Health 24: the funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. FP-R is a consultant for AstraZeneca, Cimabay, Menarini, and Pfizer, and has received investigation grants from the Spanish Health Ministry, Spanish Foundation for Rheumatology, and Cruces Hospital Rheumatology Association. PJH is principal investigator on vaccines in clinical trials against hookworm and schistosomiasis as well as several other neglected tropical disease vaccines in development. CKi receives research grants from Brazilian public funding agencies Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS). CKi has also received authorship royalties from publishers Artmed and Manole. KBG received the NHMRC-Gustav Nossal scholarship sponsored by CSL in 2012. This award is peer-reviewed through the standard NHMRC peer-review process; CSL played no part in selection of the awardee. HAW, AJF, FJC, and HEE are all affiliated with the Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, which receives funding from the Queensland Department of Health. DJS has received research grants and consultancy honoraria in the past three years from AMBRF, Biocodex, Cipla, Lundbeck, National Responsible Gambling Foundation, Novartis, Servier, and Sun. DJS is also supported by the Medical Research Council of South Africa. DM reports being on the scientific advisory board of Unilever North America and ad hoc honoraria or consulting from Bunge, Nutrition Impact, Amarin, AstraZeneca, and Life Sciences Research Organization. DAQ was supported by The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the National Institutes of Health under award number 5T32HD057822. RAL receives funding through the Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research. The Farr Institute is supported by a consortium of ten UK research organisations: Arthritis Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research, the National Institute for Social Care and Health Research (Welsh Government), and the Chief Scientist Office (Scottish Government Health Directorates). KeS is affiliated with Grant in Aid for Scientific Research from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology in Japan. JM received a fellowship from the Wellcome Trust. AKau acknowledges that she receives funding from Oklahoma Center for the Advancement of Science and Technology (OCAST) as co-principal investigator. HoC acknowledges that the study was in part supported by the intramural research program of the NIH, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. SS received research support and funding from the NIH and NRF and an honorarium from Pharmaceutical companies and is an employee at the NRF. VC acknowledges the following conflicts of interest: Speaker Bureau Boehringer Ingelheim, BMS Pfizer Advisory board: Boehringer Ingelheim Mindmaze. All other authors declare no competing interests. On behalf of the GBD 2010 Genitourinary Diseases Expert Group, GR, NoP, and BB would like to acknowledge that their activities within the GBD 2013 have been made on the behalf of the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ATA received institutional support and grants from the Graduate School of Medical Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG). JM has received support from the National Health and Medical Research Council. LLY is also supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China. UOM would like to acknowledge his funding by the German National Cohort Consortium. RB was provided funding support by the Brien Holden Vision Institute. INA would like to acknowledge her funding support from the National Health and Medical Research Council Public Health (Australian) Early Career Fellowship. KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine ( grant number 099876 ). The funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. JS was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scholars of China , ( number 81200051 ); Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (number 20110071120060); Science Foundation for Young Scholars in Zhongshan Hospital ( number 2012ZSQN04 ); and the Scientific Project for Fudan University ( number 20520133474 ). RB is funded by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Senior Principal Research Fellow. TF is grateful to the Swiss National Science Foundation for an Early and an Advanced Postdoc Mobility fellowship (project numbers PBBSP3-146869 and P300P3-154634). SJY and IHO received funding for their work in a grant from the Korean Health Technology R&D Project (Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea; grant number HI13C0729). ALT-L was supported by the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems.
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