Title
Selection of temporal lags for predicting riverflow series from hydroelectric plants using variable selection methods
Date Issued
01 August 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Siqueira H.
Macedo M.
de Souza Tadano Y.
Alves T.A.
Stevan S.L.
Oliveira D.S.
Marinho M.H.N.
de Mattos Neto P.S.G.
de Oliveira J.F.L.
de Almeida Leone Filho M.
Sarubbo L.A.
Converti A.
Universidad Estatal de Campinas
Publisher(s)
MDPI AG
Abstract
The forecasting of monthly seasonal streamflow time series is an important issue for countries where hydroelectric plants contribute significantly to electric power generation. The main step in the planning of the electric sector’s operation is to predict such series to anticipate behaviors and issues. In general, several proposals of the literature focus just on the determination of the best forecasting models. However, the correct selection of input variables is an essential step for the forecasting accuracy, which in a univariate model is given by the lags of the time series to forecast. This task can be solved by variable selection methods since the performance of the predictors is directly related to this stage. In the present study, we investigate the performances of linear and non-linear filters, wrappers, and bio-inspired metaheuristics, totaling ten approaches. The addressed predictors are the extreme learning machine neural networks, representing the non-linear approaches, and the autoregressive linear models, from the Box and Jenkins methodology. The computational results regarding five series from hydroelectric plants indicate that the wrapper methodology is adequate for the non-linear method, and the linear approaches are better adjusted using filters.
Volume
13
Issue
6
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería mecánica
Ciencias de la computación
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85090877350
Source
Energies
ISSN of the container
19961073
Sponsor(s)
Funding: This work received funding and technical support from AES and Associated Companies (of the CPFL, Brookfield, and Global group) as part of the ANEEL PD-0610-1004/2015 project, “IRIS - Integration of intermittent renewables: A simulation model of the operation of the Brazilian electrical system to support planning, operation, commercialization, and regulation”, which is part of an R and D program regulated by ANEEL, Brazil. The authors also thank the Advanced Institute of Technology and Innovation (IATI) for its support, the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) for providing the data, and the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel - Brazil (CAPES)—Financing Code 001, for support.
Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by the Brazilian agencies CAPES and FACEPE. The authors also thank the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), process number 40558/2018-5, and Araucaria Foundation, process number #51497, for their financial support.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus