Title
Bayesian updating of earthquake vulnerability functions with application to mortality rates
Date Issued
01 August 2017
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Noh H.Y.
Kiremidjian A.
So E.
Stanford University
Publisher(s)
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Abstract
Vulnerability functions often rely on data from expert opinion, postearthquake investigations, or analytical simulations. Combining the information can be particularly challenging. In this paper, a Bayesian statistical framework is presented to combining disparate information. The framework is illustrated through application to earthquake mortality data obtained from the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and from PAGER. Three different models are tested including an exponential, a combination of Bernoulli and exponential and Bernoulli and gamma fit to model respectively zero and non-zero mortality rates. A novel Bayesian model for the Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma probability densities is introduced. It is found that the exponential distribution represents the zero casualties very poorly. The Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma models capture the data for both the zero and non-zero mortality rates. It is also shown that the Bernoulli-gamma model fits the 2005 Pakistan data the best and has uncertainties that are smaller than either the ones from the 2005 Pakistan data or the PAGER data.
Start page
1173
End page
1189
Volume
33
Issue
3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad Geoquímica, Geofísica
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85046893671
Source
Earthquake Spectra
ISSN of the container
87552930
Sponsor(s)
This research was partially supported by the Global Earthquake Model, by the National Science Foundation Grant CMMI 1233694 and the Shah Family Graduate Fellowship.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus