Title
Deforestation risk in the Peruvian Amazon basin
Date Issued
18 December 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Soluciones Verde Azul
Australian National University
Publisher(s)
Cambridge University Press
Abstract
The prevention of tropical forest deforestation is essential for mitigating climate change. We tested the machine learning algorithm Maxent to predict deforestation across the Peruvian Amazon. We used official annual 2001-2019 deforestation data to develop a predictive model and to test the model's accuracy using near-real-time forest loss data for 2020. Distance from agricultural land and distance from roads were the predictor variables that contributed most to the final model, indicating that a narrower set of variables contribute nearly 80% of the information necessary for prediction at scale. The permutation importance indicating variable information not present in the other variables was also highest for distance from agricultural land and distance from roads, at 40.5% and 14.3%, respectively. The predictive model registered 73.2% of the 2020 early alerts in a high or very high risk category; less than 1% of forest cover in national protected areas were registered as very high risk, but buffer zones were far more vulnerable, with 15% of forest cover being in this category. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use 19 years of annual data for deforestation risk. The open-source machine learning method could be applied to other forest regions, at scale, to improve strategies for reducing future deforestation.
Start page
310
End page
319
Volume
48
Issue
4
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ecología
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85120630909
Source
Environmental Conservation
ISSN of the container
03768929
Sponsor(s)
Government of South Australia
The project was supported by USAID and the US Government inter-agency program SilvaCarbon.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus