Title
Evaluating Google flu trends in Latin america: important lessons for the next phase of digital disease detection
Date Issued
01 January 2017
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Pollett S.
Boscardin W.J.
Azziz-Baumgartner E.
Soto G.
Kok J.
Biggerstaff M.
Viboud C.
Rutherford G.W.
US Naval Medical Research Unit No 6
US Naval Medical Research Unit No 6
Publisher(s)
Oxford University Press
Abstract
Background. Latin America has a substantial burden of influenza and rising Internet access and could benefit from real-time influenza epidemic prediction web tools such as Google Flu Trends (GFT) to assist in risk communication and resource allocation during epidemics. However, there has never been a published assessment of GFT's accuracy inmost Latin American countries or in any low- to middle-income country. Our aim was to evaluate GFT in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. Methods. Weekly influenza-test positive proportions for the eight countries were obtained from FluNet for the period January 2011-December 2014. Concurrent weekly Google-predicted influenza activity in the same countries was abstracted from GFT. Pearson correlation coefficients between observed and Google-predicted influenza activity trends were determined for each country. Permutation tests were used to examine background seasonal correlation between FluNet and GFT by country. Results. There were frequent GFT prediction errors, with correlation ranging from r = -0.53 to 0.91. GFT-predicted influenza activity best correlated with FluNet data in Mexico follow byUruguay, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Correlation was generally highest in the more temperate countries with more regular influenza seasonality and lowest in tropical regions. A substantial amount of autocorrelation was noted, suggestive that GFT is not fully specific for influenza virus activity. Conclusions. We note substantial inaccuracies with GFT-predicted influenza activity compared with FluNet throughout Latin America, particularly among tropical countries with irregular influenza seasonality. Our findings offer valuable lessons for future Internet- based biosurveillance tools.
Start page
34
End page
41
Volume
64
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Salud pública, Salud ambiental
Epidemiología
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85015154788
PubMed ID
Source
Clinical Infectious Diseases
ISSN of the container
10584838
Sponsor(s)
U.S. Department of Defense - I0082-09-LI - DOD
The Peruvian community-based surveillance data were originally collected in a study funded by the CDC and the US Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance (grant I0082-09-LI).
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus