Title
On the use of Markov chain models for the analysis of wind power time-series
Date Issued
30 July 2012
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Scholz T.
Estanqueiro A.
Novais A.Q.
Universidade de Lisboa
Abstract
Wind energy is becoming a top contributor to the renewable energy mix, which raises potential reliability issues for the grid due to the fluctuating and intermittent nature of its source. This paper explores the use of Markov chain models for the analysis of wind power time-series. The proposed Markov chain model is based on a 2yr dataset collected from a wind turbine located in Portugal. The wind speed, direction and power variables are used to define the states and the transition matrix is determined using a maximum likelihood estimator based on multi-step transition data. The Markov chain model is analyzed by comparing the theoretically derived properties with their empirically determined analogues. Results show that the proposed model is capable of describing the observed statistics, such as wind speed and power probability density as well as the persistence statistics. It is demonstrated how the application of the Markov chain model can be used for the short-term prediction of wind power. © 2012 IEEE.
Start page
770
End page
775
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias del medio ambiente
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84864235790
ISBN
9781457718281
Conference
2012 11th International Conference on Environment and Electrical Engineering, EEEIC 2012 - Conference Proceedings
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus