Title
Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry
Date Issued
02 December 2013
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Hosseini P.
Fuller T.
Harrigan R.
Zhao D.
Arriola, Carmen
Miller M.
Xiao X.
Smith T.
Jones J.
Daszak P.
Publisher(s)
Public Library of Science
Abstract
Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified. © 2013 Hosseini et al.
Volume
8
Issue
12
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Sistema respiratorio
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84891588971
PubMed ID
Source
PLoS ONE
ISSN of the container
1932-6203
Sponsor(s)
Fogarty International Center, R01TW005869, FIC
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus