Title
Estimating the climate change consequences on the potential distribution of culex pipiens l. 1758, to assess the risk of west nile virus establishment in chile
Other title
[Estimando las consecuencias del cambio climático en la distribución potencial de culex pipiens l. 1758 para evaluar el riesgo de establecimiento del virus del oeste del nilo en chile]
Date Issued
01 June 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
Universidad de Concepcion
Abstract
Climate change affects the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Culex pipiens Linnaeus is the main vector of West Nile fever; a widely distributed arbovirus, it is continuously increasing its distribution. Using a species distribution model, maps of suitable habitats of Cx. pipiens were generated for Chile in the current climate and three climate change scenarios, using global and regional georeferenced vector presence records as input, plus bioclimatic variables. Since this virus has not yet arrived in Chile, the purpose of this study is to anticipate potential risk areas and to prevent the establishment and spread of the virus. Cx. pipiens is widely distributed in Chile. The suitable habitats in Chile were concentrated mostly from 32º to 35ºS, increasing in future scenarios up to 113 % in the northern zone and moving towards the mountains. This species conserves around 90 % of its niche in the future, and shows a reduction of 11.4 % in the severe climate change scenario. It is anticipated that Chile will experience an increase in the environmental suitability for Cx. pipiens moving from the Andes to the coastal zone throughout the country, mainly in the center-south. This will raise the risk of local virus transmission if the virus is introduced to the country via diverse routes.
Start page
46
End page
53
Volume
84
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Investigación climática
Salud pública, Salud ambiental
Epidemiología
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85096802245
Source
Gayana
ISSN of the container
0717652X
Sponsor(s)
This study was funded by the CONICYT PhD grant and Fund for Science and Technology of Chile: FONDECYT 1150514. We thank the valuable assistance of Professor Juan Sergio Figueroa, Sonia Pérez, Alfredo Navarrete, Álvaro Henríquez, Raúl Alarcón, Francisco Escobar, Ximena Duprat and Alejandro Paredes in field trips, and Esteban Contreras and Carolina Reyes for mosquito identification. We are grateful to Professor Sonia Pérez and Juan Sergio for invaluable field work.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus