Title
Time-series prediction with BEMCA approach: Application to short rainfall series
Date Issued
07 February 2018
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Abstract
This paper presents a new method to forecast short rainfall time-series. The new framework is by means of Bayesian enhanced modified combined approach (BEMCA) using permutation and relative entropy with Bayesian inference. The aim at the proposed filter is focused on short datasets consisting of at least 36 samples. The structure of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) change according to data model selected, such as the Bayesian approach can be combined with the entropic information of the series. Then computational results are assessed on time series competition and rainfall series, afterwards they are compared with ANN nonlinear approaches proposed in recent work and naïve linear technique such us ARMA. To show a better performance of BEMCA filter, results are analyzed in their forecast horizons by SMAPE and RMSE indices. BEMCA filter shows an increase of accuracy in 3-6 prediction horizon analyzing the dynamic behavior of chaotic series for short series predictions.
Start page
1
End page
6
Volume
2017-November
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería eléctrica, Ingeniería electrónica
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Ciencias de la computación
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85050411038
Resource of which it is part
2017 IEEE Latin American Conference on Computational Intelligence, LA-CCI 2017 - Proceedings
ISBN of the container
978-153863734-0
Conference
2017 IEEE Latin American Conference on Computational Intelligence, LA-CCI 2017 - Proceedings
Sponsor(s)
The authors wish to thank Agronomist Eng. Ernesto Carreño for providing cropping yield information at Santa Francisca, Cordoba, Argentina. The authors wish also to thank Universidad Catholica San Pablo, Arequipa, Peru, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (UNC), Departments of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Secretary of Science and Technology (SECYT) UNC, Department of Electronics Engineering at UNC for their support of this work. Leonardo Franco acknowledges support from Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain) through grant TIN2014-58516-C2-1-R that includes FEDER funds.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus