Title
A three-component biomarker panel for prediction of dengue hemorrhagic fever
Date Issued
01 February 2012
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Brasier A.
Ju H.
Spratt H.
Victor S.
Forshey B.
Halsey E.
Comach G.
Sierra G.
Blair P.
Morrison A.
Scott T.
Kochel T.
Villalobos I.
Espino C.
Unidad de Investigación Médica Naval-6
Unidad de Investigación Médica Naval-6
Unidad de Investigación Médica Naval-6
Abstract
Dengue virus infections are a major cause of morbidity in tropical countries. Early detection of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) may help identify individuals that would benefit from intensive therapy. Predictive modeling was performed using 11 laboratory values of 51 individuals (38 DF and 13 DHF) obtained on initial presentation using logistic regression. We produced a robust model with an area under the curve of 0.9615 that retained IL-10 levels, platelets, and lymphocytes as the major predictive features. A classification and regression tree was developed on these features that were 86% accurate on cross-validation. The IL-10 levels and platelet counts were also identified as the most informative features associated with DHF using a Random Forest classifier. In the presence of polymerase chain reaction-proven acute dengue infections, we suggest a complete blood count and rapid measurement of IL-10 can assist in the triage of potential DHF cases for close follow-up or clinical intervention improving clinical outcome. Copyright © 2012 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Start page
341
End page
348
Volume
86
Issue
2
Language
English
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84863396299
PubMed ID
Source
American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
ISSN of the container
00029637
Source funding
National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus