Title
The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2
Date Issued
01 December 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
research article
Author(s)
Nande A.
Sheen J.
Walters E.L.
Klein B.
Chinazzi M.
Gheorghe A.H.
Adlam B.
Shinnick J.
Tejeda M.F.
Scarpino S.V.
Vespignani A.
Greenlee A.J.
Schneider D.
Hill A.L.
Publisher(s)
Nature Research
Abstract
Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.
Volume
12
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Enfermedades infecciosas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85104427443
PubMed ID
Source
Nature Communications
ISSN of the container
20411723
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus