Title
Verifying the use of evolving fuzzy systems for multi-step ahead daily inflow forecasting
Date Issued
09 December 2009
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Soares S.
Lopes J.
Ballini R.
Universidade Estadual de Campinas
Abstract
This study presents a prediction system based on evolving fuzzy models and a bottom-up approach for daily streamflow forecasting. Prediction models are based on adaptive Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference systems. These models make use of a sequential learning approach for updating their own structure and parameters over time according to changes or variations identified in the series, whereas rainfall and runoff information is processed at each time instant. Models are adjusted following a bottom-up approach, which consists of dividing the global problem into sub-problems, and each sub-problem is resolved separately. Final estimate is given by the aggregation of the parts. The proposed approach is compared to the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP), a hydrological model used by various hydroelectric companies of the Brazilian electrical sector. Simulation studies indicate that the evolving fuzzy system presents an adequate performance, leading to a promising alternative for daily streamflow forecasting. Indeed, results are improved when predictors are combined, primarily for a multistep ahead prediction task. © 2009 IEEE.
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Oceanografía, Hidrología, Recursos hídricos
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-76549132747
ISBN
9781424450985
Resource of which it is part
2009 15th International Conference on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, ISAP '09
ISBN of the container
978-142445098-5
Conference
2009 15th International Conference on Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems, ISAP '09
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus