Title
A weibull mixture model for the votes of a Brazilian political party
Date Issued
01 January 2015
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Instituto de Ciências Matemáticas e de Computação
Publisher(s)
Springer New York LLC
Abstract
Statistical modeling in political analysis is used recently to describe electoral behaviour of political party. In this chapter we propose aWeibull mixture model that describes the votes obtained by a political party in Brazilian presidential elections. We considered the votes obtained by the Workers’ Party in five presidential elections from 1994 to 2010. A Bayesian approach was considered and a random walk Metropolis algorithm within Gibbs sampling was implemented. Next, Bayes factor was considered to the choice of the number of components in the mixture. In addition the probability of obtain 50% of the votes in the first round was estimated. The results show that only few components are needed to describe the votes obtained in this election. Finally, we found that the probability of obtaining 50% of the votes in the first ballot is increasing along time. Future developments are discussed.
Start page
229
End page
241
Volume
118
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Temas sociales
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84924076387
ISSN of the container
21941009
Conference
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics
Sponsor(s)
The first author was supported by CAPES, Brazil. We are grateful to editors and reviewers for valuable comments and suggestions.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus