Title
Evolution of Monetary Policy in Peru: An Empirical Application Using a Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Model
Date Issued
01 March 2022
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
Oxford University Press
Abstract
This article discusses the evolution of monetary policy (MP) in Peru in 1996Q1-2019Q4 using a mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (VAR) model with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) as proposed by Koop, Leon-Gonzales and Strachan. The main empirical results are: (i) the VAR coefficients and volatilities change more gradually than the contemporaneous coefficients over time; (ii) the volatility of MP shocks was higher under the pre-Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; (iii) a surprise increase in the interest rate produces gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls and reduces inflation in the long run; (iv) the interest rate reacts more quickly to aggregate supply shocks than to aggregate demand shocks; (v) MP shocks explain a high percentage of domestic variables behavior under the pre-IT regime but their contribution decreases under the IT regime. Overall, these results show that MP has contributed in Peru to lower macroeconomic volatility by (i) reducing average long-term inflation, (ii) increasing the response of GDP growth rate to interest rate, and (iii) by becoming more predictable. (JEL codes: C11, C32, and E52).
Start page
98
End page
126
Volume
68
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Econometría
Economía
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85126114002
Source
CESifo Economic Studies
ISSN of the container
1610241X
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus