Title
Effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño episode on community rates of diarrhea
Date Issued
01 July 2012
Access level
open access
Resource Type
review
Author(s)
Johns Hopkins University
Unidad de Investigación Médica Naval-6
Abstract
Objectives. To improve our understanding of climate variability and diarrheal disease at the community level and inform predictions for future climate change scenarios, we examined whether the El Niñ o climate pattern is associated with increased rates of diarrhea among Peruvian children. Methods. We analyzed daily surveillance data for 367 children aged 0 to 12 years from 2 cohorts in a peri-urban shantytown in Lima, Peru, 1995 through 1998. We stratified diarrheal incidence by 6-month age categories, season, and El Niñ o, and modeled between-subject heterogeneity with random effects Poisson models. Results. Spring diarrheal incidence increased by 55% during El Niñ o compared with before El Niñ o. This increase was most acute among children older than 60 months, for whom the risk of a diarrheal episode during the El Niñ o spring was nearly 100% greater (relative risk = 1.96; 95% confidence interval = 1.24, 3.09). Conclusions. El Niñ o-associated climate variability affects community rates of diarrhea, particularly during the cooler seasons and among older children. Public health officials should develop preventive strategies for future El Niñ o episodes to mitigate the increased risk of diarrheal disease in vulnerable communities.
Volume
102
Issue
7
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias ambientales Enfermedades infecciosas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84862870363
PubMed ID
Source
American Journal of Public Health
ISSN of the container
15410048
Sponsor(s)
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute - K99HL096955. Fogarty International Center - D43TW007393, R24TW007988.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus