Title
Effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño episode on community rates of diarrhea
Date Issued
01 July 2012
Access level
open access
Resource Type
review
Author(s)
Bennett A.
Epstein L.D.
Cama V.
Bern C.
Patz J.
Sterling C.R.
Checkley W.
Johns Hopkins University
Unidad de Investigación Médica Naval-6
Abstract
Objectives. To improve our understanding of climate variability and diarrheal disease at the community level and inform predictions for future climate change scenarios, we examined whether the El Niñ o climate pattern is associated with increased rates of diarrhea among Peruvian children. Methods. We analyzed daily surveillance data for 367 children aged 0 to 12 years from 2 cohorts in a peri-urban shantytown in Lima, Peru, 1995 through 1998. We stratified diarrheal incidence by 6-month age categories, season, and El Niñ o, and modeled between-subject heterogeneity with random effects Poisson models. Results. Spring diarrheal incidence increased by 55% during El Niñ o compared with before El Niñ o. This increase was most acute among children older than 60 months, for whom the risk of a diarrheal episode during the El Niñ o spring was nearly 100% greater (relative risk = 1.96; 95% confidence interval = 1.24, 3.09). Conclusions. El Niñ o-associated climate variability affects community rates of diarrhea, particularly during the cooler seasons and among older children. Public health officials should develop preventive strategies for future El Niñ o episodes to mitigate the increased risk of diarrheal disease in vulnerable communities.
Volume
102
Issue
7
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias ambientales
Enfermedades infecciosas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84862870363
PubMed ID
Source
American Journal of Public Health
ISSN of the container
15410048
Sponsor(s)
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute - K99HL096955.
Fogarty International Center - D43TW007393, R24TW007988.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus