Title
Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change
Date Issued
01 December 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
BioMed Central Ltd
Abstract
Background: Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios. Methods: We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (< 5 years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005–2009) and after (2010–2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access. Results: Nationally, an increase of 1 °C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate. Conclusions: Higher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.
Volume
20
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Meteorología y ciencias atmosféricas Investigación climática
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85101755382
PubMed ID
Source
Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source
ISSN of the container
1476069X
Sponsor(s)
Research reported in this publication was supported by the NIH Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences, National Cancer Institute, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health and the NIH under Award Number [U01 TW0101 07] and by the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases under Award Number [1K01AI103544]. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú Scopus