Title
Energy time series forecasting based on pattern sequence similarity
Date Issued
29 June 2011
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Universidad Pablo de Olavide
Abstract
This paper presents a new approach to forecast the behavior of time series based on similarity of pattern sequences. First, clustering techniques are used with the aim of grouping and labeling the samples from a data set. Thus, the prediction of a data point is provided as follows: first, the pattern sequence prior to the day to be predicted is extracted. Then, this sequence is searched in the historical data and the prediction is calculated by averaging all the samples immediately after the matched sequence. The main novelty is that only the labels associated with each pattern are considered to forecast the future behavior of the time series, avoiding the use of real values of the time series until the last step of the prediction process. Results from several energy time series are reported and the performance of the proposed method is compared to that of recently published techniques showing a remarkable improvement in the prediction. © 2011 IEEE.
Start page
1230
End page
1243
Volume
23
Issue
8
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la computación
Ingeniería de sistemas y comunicaciones
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-79959543795
Source
IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
ISSN of the container
10414347
Source funding
Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología
Sponsor(s)
The financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, project TIN2007-68084-C-00, and from the Junta de Andalucía, project P07-TIC-02611, is acknowledged.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus