Title
Decision support system for economic analysis of E&P projects under uncertainties
Date Issued
24 September 2008
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Society of Petroleum Engineers
Society of Petroleum Engineers
Abstract
This work presents the conception, modeling and development of an E&P projects economical analysis system under uncertainty that integrates the following modules: - an optimization hybrid system for oilfields development based in evolutionary algorithms with distributed evaluation, proxies and use of quality maps to optimize the place and quantity of wells in a delimited petroleum field to maximizing the NPV of the alternative. Also, this system considers some technical constrains as the minimum wells distance and maximum wells trajectory. - a model based on Genetic Algorithms and Monte Carlo simulation designed to find an optimal decision rule for some oil field development alternatives obtained from previous module, considering market uncertainty (oil price), that may help decision-making with regard to: developing a field immediately or waiting until more favorable market conditions. In the economic analysis also is considered, for each alternative under evaluating, the option of investment in information taking in account interactions of different uncertainties types. This analysis considers the option of future production expansion by installing an additional well under reserve volume uncertainties in the in the area to be drained by the additional well. Some computational intelligence techniques were applied in this system as: evolutionary algorithms, neural networks and fuzzy numbers; also, the system uses other techniques as Real Options and Monte Carlo Simulation to treat uncertainties. The obtained outcomes show the benefits to have an integrated decision support system to the decision-making in the economic analysis of oilfields development. Copyright 2008, Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Start page
1115
End page
1124
Volume
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la computación
Ingeniería del Petróleo, (combustibles, aceites), Energía, Combustibles
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-52049101371
ISBN of the container
9781605600994
Conference
Society of Petroleum Engineers - Intelligent Energy Conference and Exhibition: Intelligent Energy 2008
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus