Title
The promise of complementarity: Using the methods of foresight for health workforce planning
Date Issued
01 May 2018
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
SAGE Publications Ltd
Abstract
Health workforce planning aims to meet a health system’s needs with a sustainable and fit-for-purpose workforce, although its efficacy is reduced in conditions of uncertainty. This PhD breakthrough article offers foresight as a means of addressing this uncertainty and models its complementarity in the context of the health workforce planning problem. The article summarises the findings of a two-case multi-phase mixed method study that incorporates actor analysis, scenario development and policy Delphi. This reveals a few dominant actors of considerable influence who are in conflict over a few critical workforce issues. Using these to augment normative scenarios, developed from existing clinically developed model of care visions, a number of exploratory alternative descriptions of future workforce situations are produced for each case. Their analysis reveals that these scenarios are a reasonable facsimile of plausible futures, though some are favoured over others. Policy directions to support these favoured aspects can also be identified. This novel approach offers workforce planners and policy makers some guidance on the use of complimentary data, methods to overcome the limitations of conventional workforce forecasting and a framework for exploring the complexities and ambiguities of a health workforce’s evolution.
Start page
97
End page
105
Volume
31
Issue
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias del cuidado de la salud y servicios (administración de hospitales, financiamiento)
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85045841504
PubMed ID
Source
Health Services Management Research
ISSN of the container
09514848
Sponsor(s)
Health Workforce New Zealand y University of Otago
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus