Title
Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru
Date Issued
06 March 2011
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Metcalf C.
Chowell G.
Grenfell B.
Bjørnstad O.
DirecciĂłn General de EpidemiologĂ­a
Publisher(s)
Royal Society
Abstract
Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Consequently, understanding the age-structured dynamics of this infection has considerable public health value. Vaccination short of the threshold for local elimination of transmission will increase the average age of infection. Accordingly, the classic concern for this infection is the potential for vaccination to increase incidence in individuals of childbearing age. A neglected aspect of rubella dynamics is how age incidence patterns may be moulded by the spatial dynamics inherent to epidemic metapopulations. Here, we use a uniquely detailed dataset from Peru to explore the implications of this for the burden of CRS. Our results show that the risk of CRS may be particularly severe in small remote regions, a prediction at odds with expectations in the endemic situation, and with implications for the outcome of vaccination. This outcome results directly from the metapopulation context: specifically, extinction-re-colonization dynamics are crucial because they allow for significant leakage of susceptible individuals into the older age classes during inter-epidemic periods with the potential to increase CRS risk by as much as fivefold. Š 2010 The Royal Society.
Start page
369
End page
376
Volume
8
Issue
56
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
EpidemiologĂ­a Enfermedades infecciosas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-79251499579
PubMed ID
Source
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
ISSN of the container
17425689
Sources of information: Directorio de ProducciĂłn CientĂ­fica Scopus