Title
Recursive linear models optimized by bioinspired metaheuristics to streamflow time series prediction
Date Issued
01 March 2023
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Siqueira H.
Belotti J.T.
Boccato L.
Attux R.
Lyra C.
Institute of Economics, University of Campinas
Publisher(s)
John Wiley and Sons Inc
Abstract
Time series forecasting problems are often addressed using linear techniques, especially the autoregressive (AR) models, due to their simplicity combined with good performances. It is possible to generalize a linear predictor by allowing infinite impulse response (IIR) through the addition of feedback loops, as occurs in the autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models and IIR filters. However, the calculation of the free coefficients of these structures is more complex, as the optimization problem has no closed-form solution. This work conducts an extensive investigation on the use of linear models to predict monthly seasonal streamflow series associated with Brazilian hydroelectric plants. The main goal is to reach the best achievable performance with linear approaches. We propose the application of recursive models, estimating their parameters with the aid of bioinspired metaheuristics: particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), differential evolution (DE), and two immune-inspired algorithms, the CLONALG, and the artificial immune network for optimization (Opt-aiNet). The AR model is also considered. The results to multistep ahead forecasting indicated that the insertion of feedback loops increased the performances, with ARMA being the best predictor. The DE, PSO, and GA led to the minimum values of mean-squared error during the tests, while DE yielded the smallest dispersion.
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad Ciencias de la computación
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85096706384
Source
International Transactions in Operational Research
ISSN of the container
09696016
Sponsor(s)
This work was supported by the Federal University of Technology – Parana (UTFPR) through the granting of a scholarship. Also, the authors would like to thank CNPq for the financial support (processes 405580/2018‐5 and 305621/2015‐7) and Araucaria Foundation (process 51497). This work was supported by the Federal University of Technology – Parana (UTFPR) through the granting of a scholarship. Also, the authors would like to thank CNPq for the financial support (processes 405580/2018-5 and 305621/2015-7) and Araucaria Foundation (process 51497).
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus