Title
Can fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio help to predict exchange rates?
Date Issued
15 November 2006
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Abstract
It is accepted that standard macroeconomic variables are not capable of predicting ex ante the majority of short term changes in exchange rates. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) find that fluctuations in the common long-term trend in consumption, asset wealth, and labour income (hereby, consumption-wealth ratio) is a strong predictor of the excess returns. This study examines the role of the consumption-wealth ratio in predicting the change in the nominal exchange rate for seven industrialized economies. Evidence is found that fluctuations in the consumption wealth ratio help to predict in-sample all currencies. Out-of-sample, the results suggest that the consumption wealth ratio may play a significant role forecasting the Canadian dollar.
Start page
1251
End page
1263
Volume
16
Issue
17
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-33750377562
Source
Applied Financial Economics
ISSN of the container
14664305
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus