Title
ARPS simulations of convection during TOMACS
Date Issued
01 January 2018
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Pereira Filho A.J.
Vemado F.
Saito K.
Seko H.
Karam H.A.
University of São Paulo
Publisher(s)
Meteorological Society of Japan
Abstract
The Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study (TOMACS) for extreme-weather-resilient cities is a research and development project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). TOMACS provided a multiplatform and high spatiotemporal resolution dataset for the present research on three episodes of deep convection in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) under its heat island effect and sea breeze circulations. Heavy rainfall episodes of August 26, 2011, and July 23 and August 12, 2013, were simulated with (and without) the tropical town energy budget (T-TEB) model coupled with the advanced regional prediction system (ARPS). The T-TEB/ARPS system used initial and boundary conditions from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) mesoscale analysis data for 24-hour integration runs at 5-km resolution over Japan and at 1-km resolution over TOMACS area. The 1-km resolution hourly rainfall field simulations were verified against the respective automated meteorological data acquisition system (AMeDAS) rain gauge network measurements. Statistics of the Contingency tables were obtained to estimate the critical success index (CSI), probability of detection (POD), and false alarm rate (FAR) as well as the root mean square error (RMSE). The T-TEB/ARPS simulations improved the south and east sea breeze circulations of TMA and its urban heat island effect. The time evolution of CSI scores improved within the advective time scale, whereas dissipation (phase) errors on precipitation RMSE increased with the integration time and were larger than the dispersion (amplitude) errors. The initial and boundary conditions of JMA greatly improved the simulations as compared to the previous ones performed with the outputs of NCEP’s global forecast system as indicated by the TOMACS datasets. Thus, the results represent the and spatial evolutions of the atmospheric conditions leading to the development of a deep convection within TOMACS region. Furthermore, TMA is a good testbed to evaluate the urban surface schemes, such as T-TEB in this study.
Start page
247
End page
263
Volume
96A
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Meteorología y ciencias atmosféricas Investigación climática
Publication version
Version of Record
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85052533035
Source
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan
ISSN of the container
0026-1165
DOI of the container
10.2151/jmsj.2018-030
Sponsor(s)
This work was partially supported by FLAGSHIP 2020, MEXT, within the priority study area #4 (Advancement of meteorological and global environmental predictions utilizing observational “Big Data”). The research was developed at Laboratory of Hydrometeology of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences of the University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, in cooperation with the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The authors are grateful to MRI, JMA, for providing the datasets for the initial and boundary conditions and rainfall analysis files for verification. Appreciation is also extended to the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention for its support with regard to TOMACS. The authors are also very grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their assistance in improving this manuscript. The first author is partially supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvi-mento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) under grant 301149/2017-8.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus