Title
Suggestions for chikungunya control based on a sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model
Other title
Sugerencias a partir del análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo matemático de transmisión de chikungunya
Date Issued
01 January 2016
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Instituto Nacional de Salud
Abstract
Chikungunya fever seriously affects peoples’ health and causes chronic joint pain and even disability. Chikungunya is transmitted by the bite of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Outbreaks have been reported in throughout the world, including Latin America. Mathematical modeling studies of these outbreaks have calculated the values of various epidemiological parameters. Based on them, a mathematical model was prepared to simulate a chikungunya outbreak in a local population, which was transmitted from an neighboring infected population. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis revealed that the mosquito-to-human and human-to-mosquito transmission rates are the variables with the highest correlation with the number infected people, which were greatest at 60 days after the first case in the neighboring population. Therefore, it is recommended to take this into consideration when planning policies to control such variables as isolation of infected people, distribution of mosquito netting and repellents, fumigation, among others.
Start page
154
End page
161
Volume
33
Issue
1
Language
Spanish
OCDE Knowledge area
Medicina tropical Epidemiología Salud pública, Salud ambiental
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84971275488
PubMed ID
Source
Revista Peruana de Medicina Experimental y Salud Publica
ISSN of the container
17264634
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus