Title
Structural approaches to modeling the impact of climate change and adaptation technologies on crop yields and food security
Date Issued
01 September 2016
Access level
open access
Resource Type
review
Author(s)
Islam S.
Cenacchi N.
Sulser T.B.
Gbegbelegbe S.
Kleinwechter U.
Mason-D'Croz D.
Nedumaran S.
Robertson R.
Robinson S.
Wiebe K.
Publisher(s)
Elsevier
Abstract
Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these threats and weighing possible solutions requires a robust multidisciplinary approach. One such approach integrates biophysical modeling with economic modeling to explore the combined effects of climate stresses and future socioeconomic trends, thus providing a more accurate picture of how agriculture and the food system may be affected in the coming decades. We review and analyze the literature on this structural approach and present a case study that follows this methodology explicitly modeling drought and heat tolerant crop varieties. We show that yield gains from adoption of these varieties differ by technology and region, but are generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) adverse effects of climate change. However, yield increases over the projection period are dominated by the effects of growth in population, income, and general productivity, highlighting the importance of joint assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses.
Start page
63
End page
70
Volume
10
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Biotecnología agrícola, Biotecnología alimentaria Investigación climática
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84986899323
Source
Global Food Security
ISSN of the container
22119124
Sponsor(s)
This work was done as part of the Global Futures & Strategic Foresight Program, with funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) , the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) (Program Participant Agreement no. CRP-137-11) , and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant no. is OPP1009468) . Comments from two anonymous reviewers on an earlier draft are gratefully acknowledged.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus