Title
Short-term prediction of wind energy production
Date Issued
01 January 2006
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Abstract
This paper describes a statistical forecasting system for the short-term prediction (up to 48 h ahead) of the wind energy production of a wind farm. The main feature of the proposed prediction system is its adaptability. The need for an adaptive prediction system is twofold. First, it has to deal with highly nonlinear relationships between the variables involved. Second, the prediction system would generate predictions for alternative wind farms, as it is made by the system operator for efficient network integration. This flexibility is attained through (i) the use of alternative models based on different assumptions about the variables involved; (ii) the adaptive estimation of their parameters using different recursive techniques; and (iii) using an on-line adaptive forecast combination scheme to obtain the final prediction. The described procedure is currently implemented in SIPREÓLICO, a wind energy prediction tool that is part of the on-line management of the Spanish Peninsular system operation. © 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Start page
43
End page
56
Volume
22
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Sistemas de automatización, Sistemas de control
Ingeniería del Petróleo, (combustibles, aceites), Energía, Combustibles
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-31744451232
Source
International Journal of Forecasting
ISSN of the container
01692070
Sponsor(s)
The author is grateful to the referees for their useful comments. The author is also grateful to Carlos Velasco for his computational assistance with the nonparametric models. Some parts of this research have been presented in the following seminars: 2002-IEA Symposium on Wind Forecasting Techniques (Norrkiping), the World Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition (Berlin), the 2002 European Wind Energy Conference (Paris), the 17th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (Chania), and the XXI SEIO Meeting (Baeza). The author is grateful to the attendants of the above-mentioned seminars for their useful comments. This research has been partly supported by Red Eléctrica de España and the ANEMOS project (ENK5-CT-2002-00665), funded by the European Commission and grant SE 2004-03303 from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia. Any remaining error is the author's responsibility.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus