Title
Unprecedented recent warming rate and temperature variability over the east Tibetan Plateau inferred from Alpine treeline dendrochronology
Date Issued
01 September 2015
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier
Publisher(s)
Springer Verlag
Abstract
Despite instrumental records showing recent large temperature rises on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), only a few tree-ring temperature reconstructions do capture this warming trend. Here, we sampled 260 trees from seven Alpine treeline locations across the southeast TP. Standardized tree-ring width chronologies of Abies squamata and Sabina squamat were produced following Regional Curve Standardization detrending. The leading principal component of these records is well correlated with the regional summer (JJA) minimum temperature (MinT) (R2 = 0.47, P < 0.001, 1953–2009). Hence we produce a regional summer MinT reconstruction spanning the last 212 years. This reconstruction reveals a long-term persistent warming trend, starting in the 1820s, at a rate of 0.45 ± 0.09 °C/century (1820–2009). This trend is also detected since the 1820s in the Asian summer MinT reconstruction produced by the PAGES 2K project, with a very close warming rate (0.43 ± 0.08 °C/century, 1820–1989). Our record also displays an enhanced multi-decadal variability since the mid-twentieth century. The 1990s–2000s are the warmest of our whole record, due to the superposition of the gradual warming trend and decadal variability during this interval. The strongest decadal cooling occurs during the 1950s and the largest warming trend during the 1970s. The magnitude of warming from 1973 to 2003 was larger than the total warming trend from 1820s to 2009. Extreme events are also more frequent since 1950. The pattern of multi-decadal variability has similarities with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, suggesting common causality. CMIP5 historical simulations fail to capture both the magnitude and timing of this multi-decadal variability. The ensemble CMIP5 average produces a steady warming trend starting in the 1970s, which only accounts for about 60 % of the observed warming trend during this period. We conclude that TP summer temperature could reflect a climate response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, however modulated by multi-decadal variations common with the Atlantic sector.
Start page
1367
End page
1380
Volume
45
Issue
June 5
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Meteorología y ciencias atmosféricas
Ciencias de la Tierra, Ciencias ambientales
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84940721522
Source
Climate Dynamics
ISSN of the container
09307575
Sponsor(s)
We thank Forestry Department of Sichuan Province, Forestry Administrations of Ganzi Zhou and all counties we sampled for the great helps in field work. The field work was supported by the grant from State Key Laboratory on Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, code: 270403GK. We thank Prof. Ruijie LU and Qijing LIU for providing Lintab system. We are grateful for the generous help of Duoying JI, Qian MA, Yong LIANG and Jiangzheng WU in terms of data processing and fieldwork assistance. KNMI climate explorer has largely facilitated the processing of CRU and CMIP5 data.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus