Title
A comparison between the discrete Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal distributions to characterise microbial counts in foods
Date Issued
01 August 2011
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
University College Dublin
Abstract
The choice of statistical distributions characterising microbial counts is essential in risk assessment and risk management. While the lognormal distribution has been long used to directly model the microbial data obtained from food samples, it does not allow for complete absence of microorganisms in a sample. Within a heterogeneous Poisson theoretical interpretation, a gamma or a lognormal population distribution for the unknown microbial concentration and a Poisson measurement distribution produces a discrete Poisson-gamma (λ, 1/. k) or a Poisson-lognormal (μ, σ) distribution of observed plate counts. The capability of both distributions to deal with clustering was compared using six data sets of variable proportion of zero counts: total viable counts, coliforms and Escherichia coli on pre-chill and post-chill beef carcasses. Whereas the Poisson-lognormal distribution fitted better to the high counts data sets, the Poisson-gamma distribution represented the low counts data sets (13-81% zero counts) by far better than the Poisson-lognormal - which invariably tended to have a longer tail, an overestimated mean log and a lower predicted probability of zero counts. The inverse close relationship between the observed proportion of zero counts in the data set and the fitted dispersion factor 1/. k suggested the possibility of obtaining a first approximation of 1/. k by this means. Finally, in absence of zero counts, it was demonstrated that fitting a Poisson-lognormal to the observed plate count data can be closely approximated by the common practice of fitting a simple normal distribution to the back-calculated 'unobserved' mean concentrations in log CFU/g. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Start page
1279
End page
1286
Volume
22
Issue
8
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Biología celular, Microbiología Alimentos y bebidas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-79953799121
Source
Food Control
Resource of which it is part
Food Control
ISSN of the container
09567135
Sponsor(s)
The authors wish to acknowledge the Food Institutional Research Measure (FIRM) administered by the Irish Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, and the partial financial support of ProSafeBeef, an EU 6th Framework project.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus